Numeraire Tippening Dashboard
ERC-20 · Ethereum · AI Hedge Fund
Snapshot · Jul 16, 2026
NMR / USD — Approximate Price
~$10.20
Prices vary by exchange — sourced from CoinGecko
◆
Max Supply
11,000,000
Hard cap — the maximum NMR tokens that will ever exist
🔥
Total Supply
10,631,719
Current tokens in existence — only decreases via burns
◎
Circulating Supply
7,502,242
Tokens in circulation, excluding Numerai treasury
⚡
Currently Staked
1,119,285
Tokens locked in stakes on Numerai & Erasure protocol
11M
MAX SUPPLY
Free Circulating
58.0%
Treasury Held
28.4%
Staked (Locked)
10.2%
Burned Forever
3.3%
🔥 Deflationary Burn Tracker
368,281 NMR
burned
10,631,719 NMR
remaining
Burn rate:
3.3%
of max supply
💰 Strategic Token Buybacks
$3.2M Total
$1,000,000
Jul 17, 2025
✓ Completed
First strategic buyback announced as AUM doubled from $173M to $441M. Executed gradually via Coinbase
Institutional at or near bid prices to avoid market disruption. Approximately ~110,000 NMR repurchased
from the open market to replenish treasury reserves.
$1,000,000
Feb 16, 2026
✓ Completed
Second strategic buyback announced at NumerCon 2026, executed over two weeks via Coinbase
Institutional. A total of 116,720.83 NMR purchased at a gross average price of $8.5675 for
$1,000,000.01. Ensures a healthy treasury balance to support ongoing staking and tournament payouts
ahead of the Atomic Blockchain Staking launch in July 2026.
$1,200,000
Jul 15, 2026
✓ Completed
Third strategic buyback, announced after completion — executed over several weeks via Coinbase
Institutional at or near bid prices. Brings total buybacks to $3.2M in under one year, replenishing a
~3.1M NMR treasury that is continually drawn down by staking rewards and tournament payouts, as fund
AUM reached ~$700M (up from $560M at end of 2025).
📈 Fund AUM vs Token Market Cap
Numerai's hedge fund portfolio has grown 6.8× while the NMR token market cap sits near historic lows
Numerai AUM (13F portfolio value)
NMR Token Market Cap
Sources: AUM: SEC 13F filings (CIK 1668527) · Market Cap: CoinMarketCap / CoinGecko (quarter-end)
Note: 13F portfolio value reflects long U.S. equity positions (gross), not net fund AUM — Numerai stated ≈$700M AUM in Jul 2026. Quarterly data points; 13F through Q1 2026, market cap through Q2 2026.
Note: 13F portfolio value reflects long U.S. equity positions (gross), not net fund AUM — Numerai stated ≈$700M AUM in Jul 2026. Quarterly data points; 13F through Q1 2026, market cap through Q2 2026.
The Tippening
When buybacks outpace payouts — what happens then?
Every month, Numerai disburses NMR from its treasury to reward data scientists — typically
$180K–$530K/month in recent history. At the same time, Numerai has begun buying NMR back from
the open market. Three buybacks totaling $3.2M have been executed in under a year.
Now, imagine the trajectory continues. As the hedge fund's AUM grows (now roughly $700M, up from $560M at the end of 2025), buybacks could accelerate. There exists a hypothetical tipping point — The Tippening — where the annual dollar value of NMR bought back exceeds the annual dollar value of NMR paid out to data scientists. At that crossover, the treasury would be a net accumulator of NMR instead of a net spender, fundamentally reshaping the token's supply dynamics.
Below the tipping point, NMR flows outward from the treasury. Above it, the flow reverses — and a fixed-supply, deflationary asset with burns on top starts looking very different.
Now, imagine the trajectory continues. As the hedge fund's AUM grows (now roughly $700M, up from $560M at the end of 2025), buybacks could accelerate. There exists a hypothetical tipping point — The Tippening — where the annual dollar value of NMR bought back exceeds the annual dollar value of NMR paid out to data scientists. At that crossover, the treasury would be a net accumulator of NMR instead of a net spender, fundamentally reshaping the token's supply dynamics.
Below the tipping point, NMR flows outward from the treasury. Above it, the flow reverses — and a fixed-supply, deflationary asset with burns on top starts looking very different.
Annual Payouts vs. Buybacks (Illustrative)
NMR Paid Out (treasury → scientists)
NMR Bought Back (market → treasury)
Hypothetical crossover
⚠ Important: The Tippening is a community thought experiment, not a commitment or prediction by
Numerai. As a regulated hedge fund, Numerai has not committed to any future buyback schedule, and securities
laws prevent them from making such commitments. Past buybacks do not guarantee future buybacks. The illustrative
chart above uses approximate payout data from public blog posts and is for conceptual purposes only.
📊 Historical Stakes
2,769,352
Total stakes placed since inception on Numerai and Erasure protocols — reflecting
data scientist participation over the years.
📜 Erasure Agreements
3,598
On-chain agreements created on the Erasure protocol for decentralized prediction
staking since launch.
Total Staked (All)
1,119,285 NMR
Across Numerai tournament + Erasure protocol (includes off-chain managed stakes)
On-Chain Erasure Stake
880,328 NMR
Tokens locked in on-chain agreements only, excluding Numerai-managed off-chain stakes